The Fed has paused its cuts at 3.50-3.75% (down from a peak of 5.50% in Q3 2023). The 10Y Treasury sits at 4.26%. The S&P 500 broke 7,138 last week - dividend yield 1.10%, a 50-year low. The Magnificent 7 now make up 33.7% of the index. From Singapore, putting USD into US bonds and equities isn't just a yield story - it's also 30% WHT on dividends (but 0% on Treasury coupons thanks to the portfolio interest exemption), and each year the SGD strengthens against the USD by roughly 0.85%. This is the map of US bond and equity channels for SG residents, ranked by risk, laid side by side with the numbers.
Scope: This piece maps out US bond and equity channels for individuals who are not US persons and reside in Singapore - USD held via IBKR, Wise, or an SG bank, cash parking ETFs (SGOV, BIL, BOXX), Treasuries (T-Bill, Note, Bond, TIPS), US stocks & index ETFs (SPY/VOO/CSPX, QQQ/EQQQ, SCHD, VT/VWRA), and gold (GLD/SGLN). It does not cover real estate/REITs (that deserves its own piece). Figures are compiled from Federal Reserve H.15, US Treasury Direct, FactSet, Vanguard/BlackRock prospectuses, publicly available IRS tax documents, and MAS (April 2026).
Not investment advice. Interest rates, asset prices, and exchange rates can change at any time. "Expected returns" for riskier channels are historical estimates - not guarantees. US & SG tax rules can change - confirm with a professional before any large transaction.
From 5.50% To 3.50% - The Fed Takes A Break
The Fed started cutting in 9/2024 after holding 5.25-5.50% for 26 months. Six cuts brought it to 3.50-3.75% by December 2025, and it has held steady for two straight meetings in January & March 2026. The Fed still signals one more cut this year - but the timing is unclear. Inflation remains "somewhat elevated," and the Iran conflict adds another layer of uncertainty.
Unlike Singapore - where MAS doesn't set an interest rate but manages the SGD NEER band - the US Fed is tied directly to the Fed Funds Rate. When the Fed cuts, USD rates fall that same month; when it holds, USD rates stay put. That's why USD deposits still pay 3-3.5% while SGD pays under 2%.
But here's the trade-off: the USD has weakened against the SGD for three straight years. In early 2024, S$1 = US$0.73; by April 2026, S$1 = US$0.784. That means every US$100K held since early 2024, once converted back to SGD after 2+ years, lost roughly 7.4% of its SGD value - before even accounting for tax drag. The higher USD rate is not enough to offset the FX loss for SG residents. This is the elephant in the room nobody wants to say out loud.
20 Years Of US Rates - Fed Funds & 10Y Treasury
The Fed Funds Rate represents short-term monetary policy - set by the FOMC; the 10Y Treasury represents long-term growth + inflation expectations - priced by the market. When the short rate rises above the long rate (an inverted yield curve), history shows a recession typically follows 12-18 months later.
Risk-Return Map · US Market · Q2 2026
11 major products accessible from SG, ranked by ascending risk. Green = principal safety; blue = low risk; orange = moderate; red = high. Values are the current yield or long-term expected return - before tax and FX.
The 4% threshold is the sensitive dividing line in the US market in Q2 2026. Below 4% you can go "absolutely safe" via short-term Treasuries. Above 4% there's always a trade-off - either you take on price risk (long Treasury, TIPS), or you take on market volatility (equities, gold). Unlike Singapore, in the US even a 30Y Treasury only yields 4.5% - most of the alpha has to come from equities.
Two Gauntlets: Withholding Tax And FX Drag
Before choosing a product, you need to understand the tax architecture. For US bonds and equities, SG residents face two gauntlets: WHT on dividends (30% by default, 15% through an Ireland UCITS, 0% on Treasury coupons) and FX drag (SGD tends to strengthen against USD). SG-US has no Double Tax Agreement (DTA) for dividends - so the highest rate applies by default.
The IRS withholds this before the dividend reaches your account. US$100 of SPY dividends → you receive US$70. You cannot claim it back from SG (since there's no DTA). This applies to both individual stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA) and US-domiciled ETFs.
Coupon interest from T-Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS is fully exempt from WHT for non-resident aliens under Section 871(h) of the IRC. This is a major structural advantage - US Treasuries are far more attractive for SG residents than equities on this front. ETFs like SGOV/BIL/BOXX also benefit indirectly since most of their return is interest.
The SGD tends to strengthen against the USD because MAS targets lower inflation than the US. In 2006, USD/SGD = 1.52; in 2026, it's 1.275 → SGD has strengthened ~16% over 20 years, or roughly 0.85%/year on average. Periods of USD rally (like 2022) can see +10% over 12 months; periods of USD weakness (like 2025) can see -7%. Over the long run, every USD-denominated yield loses ~0.85-2%/year when converted to SGD.
A difference of ~US$6,000 on a US$100K investment over 10 years thanks to 0.25%/year lower WHT drag. On US$1M invested over 20 years, the gap widens to ~US$120K through compounding. Not a massive number, but it's free money - just pick the right ticker.
For long-term index ETFs: Favor UCITS (Ireland). CSPX instead of SPY, VUAA instead of VOO, EQQQ instead of QQQ, VWRA instead of VT. You save ~0.25-0.30%/year in permanent WHT drag - free money.
For individual stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA): There's no direct UCITS wrapper - you have to buy the US-domiciled shares through a broker. Accept the 30% WHT on dividends (but tech dividends are usually very low: NVDA 0.03%, AAPL 0.44%, META 0.35% → drag of ~0.1-0.15%/year, negligible).
For Treasuries & government bonds: No need for UCITS - stick with US-domiciled (SGOV, IEF, TLT) or buy directly through IBKR. Treasury coupons are fully exempt from WHT thanks to the portfolio interest exemption - a structural advantage over equity dividends.
Tier 1 · USD Cash From Singapore
Four main routes to hold USD from SG: local banks, digital banks/fintechs (Wise, Revolut), brokers (IBKR, moomoo, Tiger), and MMF/Treasury ETFs. There's no direct FDIC coverage for SG residents (FDIC only covers deposits at US banks); instead you get SIPC insurance at US brokers or segregated accounts at SG brokers.
USD Time Deposits usually pay 1.8-2.2% for 3-6 month tenors. USD savings pay close to 0%. StanChart's USD e$aver has a promo rate of 3-3.5% for new funds. Good liquidity, FX spread of 50-80 pips.
No interest paid on the first US$10K. NAV under US$100K gets a lower blended rate. Interest accrues daily, paid monthly. SIPC insures up to US$500K (including US$250K cash).
Wise Jar holds money in an MMF (State Street/BlackRock). Yield is ~SOFR minus 40bps. Safeguarding at a bank, not FDIC/SIPC insured. Fee 0.29% yearly - withdraw within 1 minute. The most convenient option for moving between SGD and USD.
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF. Tracks ~100% short-term US government bills. Distributes monthly. Coupons are WHT-exempt thanks to the portfolio interest exemption - clean for SG residents.
IBKR pays no interest on the first 10,000 USD. If your total USD cash is only 15K, 10K earns "0", and only 5K earns 3.14% → a blended rate of just 1.05%. You need >US$100K NAV and >US$10K cash to capture the full rate. For smaller portfolios, Wise USD Jar (4%, no floor) or SGOV/BIL/BOXX ETFs (3.55-4.10%) win outright.
Three ETFs dominate the "short-term cash parking" segment in the US. Same objective (tracking 1-3 month T-Bills), but three different structures - notably BOXX replicates T-Bill yield through box-spread options instead of holding Treasuries directly, creating a different tax profile.
| ETF | Issuer | Yield | ER | AUM | Structure | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | iShares | 3.55% | 0.09% | US$45B+ | Direct 0-3M T-Bills | Monthly (coupon) |
| BIL | SPDR | 3.55% | 0.14% | US$38B | Direct 1-3M T-Bills | Monthly (coupon) |
| BOXX | Alpha Architect | 4.10% | 0.19% | US$9.4B | Box-spread options | NONE (NAV appreciation) |
BOXX doesn't hold T-Bills. Instead, the fund buys & sells "box spreads" on SPX options - combining 4 options to produce a payout identical to a short-term, zero-risk loan. Return ~matches T-Bill yield but doesn't pay a coupon/dividend; all of the return shows up as NAV appreciation.
Implication for SG residents: SGOV/BIL distribute coupons monthly (WHT-exempt thanks to portfolio interest) - clean. BOXX has no distributions at all; you sell to realize gains → the NAV increase is a capital gain (tax-free in SG, no WHT in the US for non-resident aliens on capital gains from securities). Net tax is 0% either way - but BOXX is more convenient because there's no reinvestment friction (similar to an Accumulating UCITS). A return of 4.10% vs 3.55% - a 55bps win, though eaten into somewhat by the bid-ask spread when you sell.
BOXX risks: (1) Credit risk of the options-clearing counterparty (Options Clearing Corp - AA rated). (2) Tracking error: if the box-spread market is stressed, it may deviate from T-Bill yield in the short term. (3) The SEC is reviewing whether to reclassify the return as ordinary income (an issue for US taxpayers; doesn't affect SG residents).
< 1 month: Wise USD Jar (4.0%, instant withdrawal) or IBKR cash if >$100K NAV.
1-6 months: SGOV or BIL - T+1 liquidity, spread <0.01%, yield tracks SOFR closely. Between the two, pick SGOV since its ER of 0.09% beats BIL's 0.14%.
3-12 months: BOXX if you want simplicity (accumulating, no distribution), or buy 3M/6M T-Bills directly through IBKR to lock in a rate.
All three (SGOV/BIL/BOXX) are US-domiciled. There's no exact UCITS equivalent on the LSE, but IB01 (iShares $ Treasury 0-1Y UCITS) and ERNS (iShares $ Ultrashort Bond UCITS) are the closest options, yielding ~3.5%, with ER 0.10-0.12%.
Tier 2 · US Government Bonds
This is the deepest bond market in the world - over US$28 trillion outstanding, trading 24/7 globally. Non-resident aliens are exempt from withholding tax on Treasury coupon interest thanks to the "portfolio interest exemption" - a bigger perk than most stocks/ETFs offer. Three forms: T-Bills (under 1 year, zero-coupon), Notes (2-10 years, coupon-paying), Bonds (20-30 years, coupon-paying). Plus TIPS and I-Bonds.
This is how you lend money to the US government. The US is the world's benchmark borrower (near-AAA; Moody's downgraded it to Aa1 in May 2023), and unlike most countries, US debt is issued in its own currency - so the chance of a nominal default is close to zero (the Fed can print if needed). The thing to watch for is not default risk but inflation + FX risk - you lend 100K USD, get back 100K USD, but by then that USD buys less.
4, 8, 13, 26, 52-week tenors. Zero-coupon: you buy at a discount and receive par value at maturity. E.g., a 13-week bill priced at US$991.20 → repays US$1,000 after 3 months. The $8.80 difference is the "interest" - effective yield ~3.60%.
Buy directly from SG through IBKR (auction or secondary market) or indirectly via SGOV/BIL ETFs. Interest is WHT-exempt for non-resident aliens.
Notes: 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 years. Bonds: 20, 30 years. Pays a fixed coupon every 6 months. E.g., a 10Y Note with a 4.25% coupon pays 2.125% of par value every 6 months. Main risk: duration - with a 10Y duration of ~8, every 1% rise in rates → -8% in price.
Can be held to maturity (receiving full par + coupons) or sold on the secondary market. ETFs: IEF (7-10Y), TLT (20+Y), GOVT (all-maturity).
5, 10, 30-year terms with par value adjusted for CPI. If CPI rises +3%, par value rises 3%, and the coupon is calculated on the new par. The quoted yield is the real yield (after inflation). Q2 2026: 10Y TIPS real yield is 1.90% + inflation breakeven 2.30% = nominal ~4.20% (close to the nominal 10Y).
Suitable if you're worried about a CPI surprise to the upside. ETFs: TIP (all-maturity TIPS), VTIP (short TIPS).
I-Bonds are the US's near-SSB product: issued by the government for retail, capped at US$10,000/person/year, with a composite rate = fixed rate + inflation rate. Q2 2026: ~3.98% composite (1.20% fixed + 2.78% inflation). But buying through TreasuryDirect.gov requires a US Social Security Number or ITIN - SG residents don't have one → cannot buy. This is an excellent channel that's locked away from non-US person investors.
The closest alternative: TIPS ETFs (TIP, VTIP, SCHP) - buyable from SG through IBKR. Lower yield than I-Bonds (no fixed-rate floor), but still delivers inflation protection + 0% WHT on coupons.
Compared to Singapore's SGS Bonds, US Treasuries have 3 structural advantages:
- Higher yield: 10Y UST at 4.26% vs SGS 10Y at ~2.12% - a gap of 214 bps. This is the "duration premium" plus the "USD rate premium".
- 20x deeper liquidity: Daily UST volume is ~US$900B vs SGS's ~US$3B. The UST bid-ask spread is near zero even under stress.
- Fully exempt WHT on coupons (portfolio interest exemption). Not every US product gets this perk - dividends aren't exempt, only Treasury interest and a handful of corporate bond debt instruments.
The trade-off: FX risk. UST yield of 4.26% minus FX cost of ~0.85-2%/year → a net 2.3-3.4% in SGD terms. Still higher than SGS 10Y's 2.12%, but the margin of safety isn't huge. If the USD weakens more than expected, it could underperform SGS.
How To Buy 2Y/10Y Treasuries Directly From Singapore
Two paths to access Treasuries: (1) buy the bond directly through a broker, holding to maturity to receive par; (2) through an ETF (SHY/IEF/TLT/GOVT), traded like a stock. Each has different liquidity and withdrawal-speed characteristics - and that determines what you actually use Treasuries for.
Bond Search → US Treasury → Auction. Each week, the US Treasury auctions T-Bills (T-2, T-5, T-7), monthly Notes (2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y), and quarterly Bonds (20Y, 30Y). Place an order before the cut-off, and the system submits a non-competitive bid - you get that session's cut-off yield, which isn't known in advance.
Pros: No commission (IBKR charges 0 on Treasury auctions). Bid-ask spread = 0 since you're buying directly from the Treasury. Cons: You must wait for the auction schedule and can't pick a specific yield.
Bond Search → Filter maturity/coupon. You can buy previously issued bonds trading on the secondary market. Price adjusts to the prevailing yield: as yield rises, older bond prices fall.
Bid-ask spread: On-the-run (just issued) is 0.1-0.5bps for 2Y-10Y, 2-10bps for 30Y. Off-the-run is 2-5x wider. IBKR fee: 0.002% of face value, min US$5/trade. US$10K face = $5 (capped). Settles T+1.
Buy it like a stock on the NYSE: SHY (1-3Y), IEF (7-10Y), TLT (20+Y), GOVT (all maturities). Trades instantly during market hours 9:30-16:00 ET. No maturity date - the fund keeps rolling its holdings continuously.
Cost: ER 0.03-0.15%/year. IBKR commission: US$0.0035/share, min US$0.35. There's no "hold to maturity and get par" protection - the NAV always reflects the mark-to-market price of the underlying bonds.
| Criteria | Buy Direct (Auction) | Buy Direct (Secondary) | Via ETF (IEF/TLT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Settlement after purchase | T+1 (auction date) | T+1 | T+1 |
| Speed of withdrawal when needed | Must sell on secondary market (T+1) | Sell on secondary T+1 · spread 0.1-5bps | Sell in one click, T+1 · spread 0.01% |
| Real liquidity | Depends on whether it's on-the-run | On-the-run 2Y/10Y: nearly instant | Extremely high - trades continuously during market hours |
| Price risk if sold early | YES - secondary price follows prevailing yield | YES | YES - tracks NAV continuously |
| Lock in yield at purchase | Unknown in advance (auction cut-off) | YES - YTM known immediately | No lock-in - yield changes daily |
| Receive par at maturity | YES | YES | NO (fund rolls forever) |
| Annual fee | 0% | 0% | 0.03-0.15% ER |
| Best suited for | Locking yield for 3-6M, buy-and-hold | Choosing a specific duration, planning to spend at maturity | Flexible exposure, easy rebalancing |
Parking US$50K needed in 6 months (e.g., a house down payment): Buy a 6M T-Bill directly via auction. Lock in ~3.55% yield, receive full par after 26 weeks, no price fluctuation worries. An ETF (SGOV) also works - but the NAV can fluctuate ±0.1% over 6 months, not a big deal given duration <1.
Parking US$100K with a 2-year horizon: Buy a 2Y Note on the secondary market via IBKR - on-the-run spread ~0.5bp, current yield 3.65%. Hold to maturity to receive par + 4 coupon payments. If you need to sell early for some reason, a 0.5-1bp spread is acceptable. Alternative: SHY ETF - ER 0.15%, easier to trade but doesn't lock in a yield.
Long-duration bet (Fed cuts aggressively): Use TLT ETF (20+Y) - high duration leverage (~17), so every 1% drop in rates → TLT +17%. Trades in a second like a stock. Buying 10Y/30Y directly also works but needs a large position size for the trade to be convenient (>US$25K face).
Simple, long-term: IEF (7-10Y) or GOVT (all-mat). No need to track the auction schedule or decide on a specific maturity, one click to buy, one click to sell. Trade-off: ER of 0.05-0.15%/year and no par at sale.
On-the-run Treasuries (most recently issued, e.g. this week's 2Y Note auction) are the most liquid bonds in the world - bid-ask spread is usually < 0.5bp = 0.005% of value. Selling US$100K on-the-run 10Y notes costs ~US$5 in spread. Settles T+1, cash lands in your account the next day.
Off-the-run (older bonds): spread widens to 5-20bps, especially outside NY trading hours. If you bought a 10Y Note issued in 2020 (with 4 years left to maturity), the spread when selling could be 5-10bps = -US$50-100 on US$100K. Not huge, but not free.
Under stress (COVID 3/2020, Silicon Valley Bank 3/2023): On-the-run spreads still stayed <2bps - this deep liquidity is the "structural alpha" of Treasuries. By contrast, investment-grade corporate bond spreads widened to 50-200bps in the same stress periods. This is why Treasuries and their corresponding ETFs are considered "tier 1 liquid assets" for central banks.
Actual time to get SGD in hand: (1) Sell UST T+1 = cash lands in IBKR. (2) Convert USD→SGD on IBKR = T+0 (instant), FX fee 0.03%. (3) Withdraw IBKR SGD to an SG bank via FAST = 1-2 business days. Total: ~3-4 business days from the decision to sell to SGD sitting in the bank.
Tier 3 · US Stocks & Index ETFs
This is the main reason SG residents pour money into the US - the deepest equity market in the world, US$55T in market cap, roughly 60% of MSCI World. But Q2 2026 is an unusual backdrop: the S&P 500 is at a historic peak of 7,138, dividend yield at 1.10% (a 50-year low), and the Magnificent 7 make up 33.7% of the index. The index is no longer as "diversified" as its name suggests.
This is the most important decision table for SG residents. Same underlying (S&P 500 · 503 stocks), but domicile determines a 1.25%/year tax drag.
| Ticker | Name | Domicile | ER | AUM | Div WHT | Listing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | USA | 0.0945% | US$580B | 30% | NYSE |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 | USA | 0.03% | US$525B | 30% | NYSE |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 | USA | 0.03% | US$520B | 30% | NYSE |
| CSPX | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS | Ireland | 0.07% | US$98B | 15% | LSE · SGX · XETRA |
| VUAA | Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS (Acc) | Ireland | 0.07% | US$27B | 15% | LSE · SGX |
| SPYL | SPDR S&P 500 UCITS | Ireland | 0.03% | US$14B | 15% | LSE · XETRA |
CSPX and VUAA are both Accumulating - dividends are automatically reinvested by the fund into more shares instead of being paid out to your account. Advantages: (1) No taxable event on reinvestment - it auto-compounds 100%. (2) No FX fee converting USD→SGD for dividends and then SGD→USD to buy back in. (3) Simpler for tax reporting.
Distributing funds (e.g., VUSA) pay dividends into your account - suitable if you need cash flow. But for long-term accumulation holdings, Accumulating always wins.
| UCITS | US Equivalent | Coverage | ER | Div yield | 10Y return p.a. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSPX / VUAA | SPY / VOO | S&P 500 (503 largest stocks) | 0.07% | 1.10% | ~13% |
| EQQQ / CNDX | QQQ | NASDAQ-100 (tech-heavy) | 0.30% | 0.50% | ~17% |
| VWRA / FWRA | VT | All-world (~4,000 stocks) | 0.22% | 1.80% | ~10% |
| IWDA | - | Developed markets (MSCI World) | 0.20% | 1.60% | ~11% |
| EMIM | VWO | Emerging markets | 0.18% | 2.40% | ~4% |
| EISU / IWMO | MTUM | Momentum factor | 0.30% | 1.20% | ~12% |
Magnificent 7 = Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla. In 2015 it made up just 12.3% of the S&P 500. It peaked at 34.3% at the end of 2024. As of April 2026: 33.7% - thanks to rotation out of M7 earlier this year (S&P 493 +4%, M7 -1.3%). But the weighting remains near an all-time high for the index.
When you buy CSPX/VOO, every US$1 invested actually splits as follows: 33¢ into Magnificent 7 (7 tech stocks), 67¢ into the remaining 496 stocks. This is not "diversification" in the academic sense - you're holding a single concentrated bet on US large-cap tech.
Ways to reduce concentration: (1) Use equal-weight S&P (RSP) or a UCITS equivalent - each stock at 0.20%, ER 0.20%. (2) Add mid-cap (IJH/IMID) and small-cap (IJR/ISP6) exposure. (3) Use all-world (VWRA) instead of just the S&P - it automatically diversifies into non-US and caps US weighting at around 60%.
| Stock | Ticker | Market Cap | P/E fwd | Dividend | ROE | 5Y return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | NVDA | US$3.9T | 34x | 0.03% | 103% | +1,100% |
| Apple | AAPL | US$3.4T | 29x | 0.44% | 156% | +120% |
| Microsoft | MSFT | US$3.3T | 32x | 0.70% | 35% | +170% |
| Alphabet | GOOGL | US$2.3T | 21x | 0.40% | 31% | +140% |
| Amazon | AMZN | US$2.1T | 38x | 0% | 20% | +85% |
| Meta | META | US$1.5T | 23x | 0.35% | 33% | +275% |
| Tesla | TSLA | US$0.9T | 78x | 0% | 10% | +220% |
P/E (Price/Earnings) forward = Current price ÷ expected EPS over the next 12 months. In other words: how many USD you're paying for every 1 USD of expected profit. The S&P 500's historical average is ~15-17x; in April 2026 it's ~24x - roughly 40-55% above the historical average.
Reading the table: GOOGL at 21x and META at 23x sit in a reasonable zone for tech growth. AAPL at 29x, MSFT at 32x are elevated but not outlandish. NVDA at 34x is high given execution risk around the AI cycle. TSLA at 78x is a story of faith in autonomy/robotics, not fundamentals - it's already down 19% YTD 2026.
Tier 4 · Gold - The Same Global Anchor
Gold doesn't discriminate by nationality - an SG resident holding GLD on the NYSE or BullionStar at Orchard holds the same asset. But the wrapper around it creates differences in tax & cost.
| Channel | Type | ER / spread | Location | Notes for SG residents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | Physical ETF | 0.40% | NYSE | US-domiciled · deepest liquidity |
| IAU | Physical ETF | 0.25% | NYSE | Cheaper than GLD · US-domiciled |
| SGLN / IGLN | UCITS physical ETF | 0.12-0.25% | LSE | UCITS Ireland · cross-listed on multiple EU exchanges |
| PHAU | UCITS ETC (Swiss vault) | 0.12% | LSE | Cheapest · Zurich vault |
| O87 (SPDR Gold) | Physical ETF | 0.40% | SGX | CPF/SRS eligible · SGD-quoted |
| BullionStar physical | 1kg bar | 0.4% spread | SG vault | GST exempt · vault fee 0.39%/year |
If you already have an IBKR account → SGLN (LSE, UCITS, ER 0.25%) or PHAU (Swiss vault, ER 0.12%) is the default. If you want to use CPF/SRS → O87 on the SGX. GLD/IAU (US-domiciled) are also fine if convenient - there's no major tax trade-off for gold since there's no distribution (returns come via NAV appreciation = capital gain = 0% tax in SG).
With a +43% rally over 12 months, gold is sitting at a historic peak. Position sizing: 5-10% of a portfolio is normal; 15%+ is a "bet" on a weak dollar/geopolitical stress. Note that 2013-2018 saw gold trade sideways -30% over 5 years - it generates no cash flow and doesn't self-correct.
Master Table - 12 Channels On One Page
| Product | Yield/return | Capital risk | WHT for SG | Liquidity | Minimum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG USD FD | 1.5-2.5% | None | 0% | Locked 3-12M | US$10K |
| IBKR USD cash | 0-3.14% | Very low | 0% | Instant | US$0 |
| Wise USD Jar | ~4.0% | Very low | 0% | 1-minute withdrawal | US$0 |
| SGOV / BIL ETF | 3.55% | Very low | 0% | T+1 | 1 share |
| BOXX ETF | 4.10% | Very low | 0% (cap gain) | T+1 | 1 share |
| T-Bill 3M direct | 3.65% | None | 0% | Hold to maturity | US$100 |
| 2Y Treasury Note | 3.65% | Duration ~2 | 0% | Secondary T+1 | US$100 |
| 10Y Treasury Note | 4.26% | Duration ~8 | 0% | Secondary T+1 | US$100 |
| TIPS 10Y | 1.90% real | Price + CPI | 0% | Secondary T+1 | US$100 |
| CSPX/VUAA (UCITS) | ~10% LT | Drawdown -57% | 15% | T+2 | 1 share |
| EQQQ (UCITS) | ~13% LT | Drawdown -55% | 15% | T+2 | 1 share |
| Individual US stocks | Varies | Stock-specific | 30% | T+1 | 1 share |
| Gold UCITS (SGLN) | ~11% (20Y) | High volatility | n/a | T+2 | 1 share |
Three Allocation Strategies - An SG Resident's USD Perspective
Assumption: the SG investor already has an SGD base (CPF, SSB, SGD MMF) to cover living expenses. The USD portfolio is the growth & diversification piece, not a rainy-day fund. Three models based on horizon & drawdown tolerance.
USD Parking
- SGOV / T-Bill 3M 40%
- Wise USD Jar 25%
- IBKR USD cash 20%
- Gold UCITS (SGLN) 15%
Core US Exposure
- CSPX / VUAA (S&P 500) 35%
- VWRA (All-world) 15%
- 10Y Treasury / IEF 20%
- TIPS / SCHP 10%
- SGLN (Gold UCITS) 10%
- Cash USD 10%
Built To Weather Storms
- CSPX (S&P 500) 40%
- EQQQ (NASDAQ-100) 15%
- Individual stocks (NVDA/GOOGL/META) 15%
- EMIM (EM Markets) 10%
- TLT (30Y Treasury) 5%
- SGLN (Gold) 10%
- BOXX / Cash USD 5%
Crises & Drawdown History In The US Market
GFC 2008, COVID 2020, Rate Shock 2022 - three scenarios entirely different in cause (credit, liquidity, rates) but all teaching the same lesson: only short-term cash and gold are true safe havens. Equities, long-duration bonds, and cash equivalents can all get swept up at once.
Recovery Time - Three US Market Crises
| Crisis | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10Y Tsy | TLT (30Y) | Gold | S&P 500 recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFC 2008 | -57% | -54% | +15% | +34% | +25% | 5 years 5 months |
| COVID 2020 | -34% | -30% | +8% | +17% | +25% | 5 months (V-shape) |
| Rate Shock 2022 | -25% | -36% | -18% | -31% | -1% | ~1.5 years |
- Keep 6-12 months of living expenses in SGD in Singapore before investing in USD - don't turn your USD portfolio into a rainy-day fund
- Use UCITS for index ETFs - saves ~0.25-0.30%/year in WHT drag (15% vs 30%) on dividends. Free money just by picking the right ticker
- Buy Treasuries directly through IBKR auction for a horizon under 1 year - 0% WHT on coupons, zero trading fees, guaranteed yield lock-in
- DCA regularly every month through IBKR - cheap FX (0.03%), accumulate automatically through volatility
- Rebalance annually - trim winners (equity after a rally), add to losers (Treasuries after a drawdown)
- Check your concentration - if your top 7 holdings exceed 40% of the portfolio, you're already over-exposed to M7
- Buy SPY/VOO when a UCITS equivalent exists - same underlying, 0.30%/year more expensive due to WHT drag. There's no good reason for it
- Go all-in on NASDAQ/Mag 7 - concentration is already very high; if you buy QQQ/EQQQ on top of individual M7 stocks, your M7 exposure can easily exceed 50%
- Treat long-duration Treasuries as "safe" - 2022 taught the lesson of 30Y falling -31%. Duration risk is real and significant
- Convert a large lump sum of SGD→USD at once - DCA your FX conversion to reduce timing risk. Wise's 0.35% spread beats a bank's 0.5-0.8%, and IBKR's 0.03% is best of all
- Sell Treasuries before maturity without accounting for the spread - on-the-run at 0.5-1bp is fine, off-the-run can be 5-20bps. Important for anyone parking a large sum short-term
03 Discussion
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