In 1916, Britain promised three different things to three different groups - none of them compatible. A century later, every war in the Middle East - from Gaza to Yemen, from Syria to Iran - traces back to the same handful of pages signed in London and Paris. The Middle East isn't "chaotic" because of culture or religion. The Middle East is a structural conflict machine - designed by outsiders, powered by oil, and paid for by civilians.
Scope: This piece spans 100 years across six acts - from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire (1900–1920) to the post-Assad order (2024+). It focuses on three layers that coexist in every conflict: religion (Sunni–Shia, Muslim–Jewish), geopolitics (oil, territory, great-power influence), and ethnicity (Arab, Persian, Turkish, Kurdish).
Figures: estimates compiled from multiple sources (SIPRI, UNHCR, ACLED, Iraq Body Count, PRIO, the Brown University Costs of War Project). Death tolls in war always carry a wide margin of error - treat them as orders of magnitude, not exact counts.
Three Numbers To Start With
As the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Britain needed allies for World War I. It promised the same land to three groups at once. This wasn't a diplomatic accident - it is the original design of every conflict in the region.
The Arabs were promised an "independent kingdom." The Jews were promised "a national home in Palestine." And Britain and France secretly redrew the map for themselves. Three parties, three promises, one piece of land.
After World War I, only one of the three was honored - Sykes–Picot. The other two became permanent engines of conflict: betrayed Arab nationalism, and a Zionist project planted on land that wasn't theirs to give.
If the Arabs revolted against the Ottomans, Britain would back an independent Arab kingdom stretching from Syria to Yemen. The Arab Revolt broke out (with T.E. Lawrence). The promise was never kept.
Mark Sykes and François Picot drew straight lines with a ruler. France: Syria + Lebanon. Britain: Iraq + Jordan + Palestine. The borders paid no attention to tribe, ethnicity, or religion. It surfaced in 1917 when the Bolsheviks published it.
67 words in a short letter: Britain "view[ed] with favour" the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine - on land it had simultaneously promised to the Arabs and divided up with France.
Nearly every conflict after 1920 traces back to the contradiction among these three promises: Arab nationalism was born from the betrayal of Hussein–McMahon. The civil wars in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq were born from the Sykes–Picot borders. The entire Israel–Palestine question was born from Balfour. "The Middle East conflict" cannot be solved without understanding that its starting point was fraudulent wartime diplomacy.
The Religious Axis - A 1,400-Year Split
Before understanding any conflict, you need to understand the Sunni–Shia axis. This is not just a religious disagreement - it's a political tool that regimes and great powers have used to divide and rule for 14 centuries. And it's still being used today.
Saddam (Sunni) oppressed Iraq's Shia. Assad (Alawite/Shia) oppressed Syria's Sunnis. Saudi Arabia mobilizes Sunnis against Shia Iran. Every regime uses sect as a camouflage layer for the real power struggle underneath. When the state weakens, people retreat into sectarian identity for self-protection - and the loop continues.
Six Acts - A Timeline From 1900 To Today
The modern Middle East isn't one continuous stream of events - it's six acts, each opening with an event that shatters the old order and closing by laying the groundwork for the next. Expand each act to read the detail.
I 1900 - 1920 The Empire Collapses · The Map Gets Redrawn Opening
In the early 20th century, the Ottoman Empire - 600 years ruling the Middle East - was already being called "the sick man of Europe." It lost the Italo-Turkish War (1911) and the Balkan Wars (1912–13), bleeding territory continuously. Internally, the "Young Turks" coup of 1908 brought radical Turkish nationalism to power - leading to the Armenian genocide (1915–23), which killed 1.5 million people.
The Ottomans picked the wrong side in World War I, allying with Germany. Britain, France, and Russia used the opportunity to carve up the carcass of the empire. This is when the three contradictory promises were made (see above). The result: the Treaty of Sèvres (1920) dismembered the Ottoman state, and the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) recognized the Republic of Turkey under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk - who secularized Turkey and abolished the Islamic Caliphate (1924).
From this moment on, Middle Eastern borders were drawn by a Western ruler, not by the will of the people living there. Every modern state in the region is an artificial product of the 1919–1922 period - and internal instability was baked in from the start.
II 1920 - 1948 Mandates & The Birth Of Israel Foundation
The League of Nations handed Britain and France "mandates" over the former Ottoman lands - colonialism under a new name. France took Syria and Lebanon. Britain took Iraq, Jordan, and Palestine. Iraq was stitched together from three different Ottoman provinces: Mosul (Kurdish/Sunni) + Baghdad (Sunni) + Basra (Shia). Oil discovered at Kirkuk (1927) turned Iraq into "the prize."
Meanwhile, on the Arabian Peninsula, Ibn Saud unified the territory by the sword, allying with Wahhabism, and founded the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (1932). Oil was discovered in 1938 with ARAMCO (a U.S. company). A poor desert region entered the orbit of global capitalism.
In Palestine, Jewish immigration (Aliyah) rose from 11% of the population (1922) to 33% (1947). Arabs revolted (1936–39) but were suppressed by Britain. After the Holocaust, international pressure grew - the UN voted to partition Palestine (11/1947). The Arabs rejected the plan. On May 14, 1948, Israel declared independence.
Immediately after Israel's independence, five Arab states attacked. Israel won - and in the process, roughly 700,000 Palestinians were expelled or fled their homes. Palestinians call it the "Nakba" (Catastrophe). They lost 78% of the territory. The Palestinian refugee question (now 5.9 million people) remains the unresolvable knot at the center of every negotiation.
III 1948 - 1979 Cold War & Oil Becomes A Weapon Escalation
Nasser (Egypt) seized power in a 1952 coup and nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956. The U.S. and USSR forced Britain, France, and Israel to withdraw - marking the end of British-French imperial power and opening the U.S.-Soviet era in the region. Three Arab-Israeli wars that followed reshaped the map:
- 1967 · The Six-Day War: Israel defeated Egypt, Syria, and Jordan in just six days, capturing the Sinai, Gaza, the West Bank, the Golan Heights, and East Jerusalem. It completely redrew the region's geography.
- 1973 · Yom Kippur: Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on the holy day. Israel nearly lost - emergency U.S. aid saved it. The Arab response: an oil embargo.
OPEC embargoed oil to the West for backing Israel. Oil prices rose 300%. The U.S. and European economies fell into recession. In 1974, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed the Petrodollar agreement: Saudi Arabia would sell oil only in dollars, and the U.S. would guarantee Saudi security. From that point on, the dollar became the world's reserve currency, anchored to Middle Eastern oil - a link that persists to this day.
In 1978, Sadat (Egypt) flew to Israel - a move that shocked the Arab world. The Camp David Accords followed: Israel returned the Sinai, Egypt recognized Israel. Sadat was assassinated by Islamist extremists in 1981. Egypt was shunned by the Arab world for years afterward.
IV 1979 The Hinge Year - Three Events At Once Turning point
A single year gave birth to modern political Islam, global terrorism, and the Taliban. Three near-simultaneous events:
Shah Reza Pahlavi (pro-U.S., installed by the CIA in 1953) was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran went from America's closest ally to enemy number one. The "Velayat-e Faqih" model - a uniquely Islamic state. A 444-day hostage crisis. Iran began exporting revolution → Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, the Houthis.
Sunni extremists seized Islam's holiest mosque, demanding the Saudi royal family become "more Islamic." After the siege was crushed (with French special forces), Saudi Arabia responded by spending $100B+ exporting Wahhabism globally - planting the seeds of Sunni extremism worldwide for decades to come.
The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan funded the Mujahideen against the Soviets (the CIA's Operation Cyclone). One of the fighters trained in the process: Osama bin Laden. Afghanistan became "the Soviet Union's Vietnam" - helping hasten the collapse of the Soviet empire, and functioning as an Al-Qaeda factory for the decade that followed.
The U.S. beat the Soviets in Afghanistan but lost in the long run: the Mujahideen fighters it trained, and Saudi Arabia funded, turned around and attacked the U.S. in 2001. Every short-term great-power intervention in the Middle East leaves behind a long-term wound - because when the great power withdraws, the weapons, the skills, and the networks stay behind.
V 1980 - 2001 The Gulf War Era Blood
Iran–Iraq (1980–88): Saddam Hussein attacked Iran hoping to seize the oil-rich Khuzestan region. Eight years - the longest war of the 20th century - fought with WWI-style trenches, human-wave assaults, and chemical weapons. ~1 million people died. The U.S. quietly backed Iraq to contain Iran. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait funded Iraq with tens of billions of dollars. The result: a stalemate, nobody won, and Iraq was buried in debt.
Gulf War I (1990–91): Saddam, drowning in debt after the war with Iran, invaded Kuwait. The U.S. led a 35-nation coalition, Operation Desert Storm, defeating Iraq in 42 days of air war plus 100 hours of ground combat. On its way out, Iraq set fire to 700 Kuwaiti oil wells.
1) The U.S. established a permanent base in Saudi Arabia - enraging bin Laden ("infidel troops on holy soil"). 2) Sanctions on Iraq killed 500,000 children (per UNICEF). 3) Shia and Kurdish uprisings were crushed by Saddam while the U.S. stood by - a betrayal that permanently destroyed trust in the West. All three fed directly into what became 9/11.
VI 2001 - 2024 Terror, Spring, Syria, Gaza Contemporary
9/11/2001: 19 Al-Qaeda hijackers (15 of them Saudi) killed 2,977 people. The U.S. invaded Afghanistan (10/2001, the longest war in American history at 20 years) and then Iraq (3/2003, based on WMDs that did not exist). Disbanding the Iraqi army created 400,000 unemployed Sunni veterans - who became the manpower pool for ISIS.
ISIS (2013–19): A direct product of the Iraq invasion. It seized a third of Iraq and a third of Syria (2014), declaring a "Caliphate." It was defeated by a coalition of the U.S., Kurdish forces (the SDF), and Iran/Shia militias. It lost territory but survives as an underground network.
The Arab Spring (2011): Starting from a Tunisian street vendor's self-immolation, it grew into the largest movement in the Arab world since decolonization. Tunisia transitioned to a shaky democracy. Egypt's revolution was reclaimed by the military. Libya, Syria, and Yemen fell into civil war. The bitter lesson: an unorganized revolution gets stolen by whichever force is most organized (the military, or Islamist extremists).
Syria (2011–24): Not two sides, but ten. Assad (backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah) versus Sunni rebels (funded by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar) versus Kurds (backed by the U.S.) versus ISIS versus HTS. 500,000+ killed, 12 million displaced. In December 2024, HTS launched a surprise offensive, Assad fled to Russia - ending 53 years of Assad family rule.
Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking 250 hostages - the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. Israel struck back with "Iron Swords." As of 2025: 45,000+ Palestinians dead (mostly civilians), 85% of Gaza's housing destroyed. The ICJ is reviewing genocide allegations. Hezbollah joined the fight from Lebanon. The Houthis fired missiles at Red Sea shipping. Iran fired missiles directly at Israel for the first time in its history (4/2024, 10/2024).
The Proxy Map - Who Fights Whom, By Whose Hand
The Middle East is where great powers fight through other people's hands. No one goes to war directly - because of Israel's nuclear arsenal, because of U.S. bases scattered across the Gulf, because of red lines no one wants to cross. Instead, they fund local groups to fight on their behalf. This is the two-axis system that runs the region:
From Tehran, Iran built a network of Shia (and some Sunni) armed groups forming an arc stretching to the Mediterranean. The goal: encircle Israel and deter the U.S. without fighting directly.
- Hezbollah · Lebanon - founded in 1982 with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. 100,000+ rockets. A "state within a state."
- Hamas + PIJ · Palestine - Sunni, but receives Iranian money and weapons. Has controlled Gaza since 2007.
- Shia militias · Iraq - the Hashd al-Shaabi, dozens of groups trained by Iran, nearly as strong as the Iraqi army.
- Houthis · Yemen - Zaidi Shia, controlling Sanaa since 2014. Fire missiles at Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping.
- Assad · Syria - Alawite (a Shia offshoot). Iran sent troops and money to save Assad during the civil war. Collapsed 12/2024.
Saudi Arabia leads the Sunni bloc with U.S. backing. The goal: preserve Sunni power, contain Iran wherever possible, and protect the Gulf monarchies.
- The Yemen coalition (2015–) - Saudi-led airstrikes against the Houthis. The UN calls it "the world's worst humanitarian catastrophe."
- Syrian rebels - Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar funded Sunni groups fighting Assad, including extremist factions.
- Bahrain 2011 - Saudi Arabia sent tanks to crush a Shia-led uprising during the Arab Spring.
- Egypt - Saudi Arabia has pumped $30B+ into the Sisi regime since the 2013 coup.
- Global Wahhabism - $100B+ spent building religious schools and mosques worldwide.
Syria's ally (the Tartus naval base, the Khmeimim air base). Intervened militarily to save Assad, 2015–2024. Sells weapons to Iran, Syria, and Egypt. Wants to preserve its Mediterranean foothold - a core objective dating back to the tsars.
A NATO member charting its own course. Opposes both Assad and the Kurds (PKK, YPG). Invaded northern Syria three times. Erdogan wants to restore Ottoman-era influence. Exports the Bayraktar TB2 drone. Backs Hamas.
The new player. Brokered the Iran–Saudi rapprochement in 2023 (a shock to Washington). The region's biggest oil buyer. Investing in infrastructure through the Belt and Road. No "historical baggage" like the U.S. carries. Filling the vacuum with money, not bombs.
Every party has a reason to NOT want peace: Iran needs proxies to deter Israel without fighting it directly. Saudi Arabia needs conflict to prove Iran is dangerous. The U.S. and Russia need to sell weapons. Local armed groups need conflict to survive. The result: Middle Eastern civilians pay the price for a war fought by people who never have to face the bombs themselves.
Oil - The Soft Weapon Across 75 Years
If the Middle East has a pulse, it's the price of oil. Every peak is a war. Every trough is an era of relative stability. Reading this chart is reading geopolitical history:
The Accounting Of Conflict
You cannot write about the Middle East while avoiding the numbers. Below are estimated death tolls from the major conflicts since 1980 - mostly civilians, mostly never counted accurately.
Military Spending · 2023
Iran's official spending is a tenth of Saudi Arabia's, yet its proxy network is far larger. The reason: Iran invests in cheap labor plus ideology (local militia fighters paid $400/month) instead of expensive hardware. Saudi Arabia buys F-35s and Patriot batteries; Iran builds Hezbollah and the Houthis. In a game of asymmetric warfare, Iran's return on investment has been much higher - at least until 2023.
Seven Structural Reasons There Can Be No Peace
Conflict in the Middle East isn't an accident. It's a structural phenomenon - sustained by seven mutually reinforcing mechanisms. Solving any one alone isn't enough; all seven have to be addressed at once.
Sykes–Picot drew straight lines with a ruler. Iraq stitched together three mutually hostile groups. Syria: an Alawite minority ruling a Sunni majority. Lebanon: 18 religious sects packed into one small country. There is no natural "national identity" - only tribal and sectarian identity.
Oil = enormous revenue that requires no taxation of citizens = no accountability to citizens. "No taxation, no representation" - the inverse of America's 1776 slogan. Oil is also the reason great powers intervene: the U.S. didn't invade Iraq for "freedom" - it did it for oil.
Sunni–Shia isn't just religion - it's a political instrument. Saddam (Sunni) oppressed the Shia. Assad (Alawite) oppressed the Sunnis. Iran and Saudi Arabia use sect to compete geopolitically. When the state weakens, people retreat into sect for self-protection - a loop with no exit.
Britain-France (1920s) → U.S.-USSR (Cold War) → unipolar U.S. (1991–2011) → multipolar (today). At no point have the people of the Middle East been allowed self-determination. Every intervention creates a new problem: the CIA topples Iran's government → the Islamic Revolution. The U.S. invades Iraq → ISIS.
It can't be solved with two states (settlements have already killed that option on the ground: 700,000+ settlers) nor with one state (Israel loses its Jewish character, or Palestinians lose equal rights). Every regional war eventually traces back here - even when it's just a pretext.
The Middle East is the world's largest arms market. The U.S., France, Britain, and Russia sell hundreds of billions a year. Saudi Arabia is the U.S.'s number-one customer. Peace = losing your biggest client. Arms manufacturers have a direct incentive to keep the conflict going.
60% of the population is under 30. Youth unemployment runs 25–30% - the highest in the world. When millions of young people have no jobs, no political voice, and live under repressive regimes, they become easy targets for radicalization. ISIS recruited fighters with a $400/month salary, drawing from people who had nothing left to lose. This is the endless fuel of the spiral.
These seven mechanisms reinforce one another: artificial borders create sectarian conflict, conflict invites great-power intervention, intervention requires weapons, weapons feed the arms industry, the industry needs the war to continue, war destroys the economy and creates unemployment, and unemployment supplies fresh recruits to extremist groups. Breaking the cycle requires cutting multiple branches at once - something no one has ever done.
2024–2026: A New Order Is Taking Shape
The last three years have shattered assumptions that held for 40 years. Iran's "Axis of Resistance" - a network built over four decades - collapsed in 18 months. The United States, for the first time since 1945, is withdrawing from its role as the region's policeman. And China, without firing a single shot, is becoming the biggest player.
- Hezbollah was badly battered by Israel (9–10/2024) - senior leaders assassinated, a significant share of its missile stockpile destroyed.
- Assad fell in 12/2024 after 53 years of family rule - HTS launched a surprise offensive and Assad fled to Russia.
- Hamas lost operational capacity, its senior leadership was killed, and Gaza lay in ruins.
- The Houthis are the only proxy still operating at full strength - continuing to attack Red Sea shipping, disrupting 15% of global trade.
- Inside Iran - the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests (2022), an economy exhausted by sanctions, clerics losing public trust. Uranium enrichment reached 84% (close to weapons-grade 90%).
- The U.S. gradually withdraws - from "pivot to Asia" to "America First." Creating the first power vacuum since 1945.
- China fills the gap - brokering the Iran–Saudi rapprochement (3/2023, a strategic shock to Washington). Buying oil equals influence. No bases required.
- Saudi Vision 2030 - MBS pivots from oil to tourism, tech, and NEOM. Normalizing with Iran. Reaching out to Israel. Keeping distance from the U.S.
- Post-Assad Syria - HTS (former Al-Qaeda) holds power. Israel seizes more of the Golan. Turkey strikes the Kurds. Unclear whether it stabilizes or spirals into chaos.
- The energy transition - as the world weans off oil, the Gulf states must reform or die. Vision 2030 is an existential necessity, not a luxury.
| Development | Winners | Losers | Long-Term Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assad's fall | Turkey, Sunni rebels, Israel | Iran, Russia, Hezbollah | Loss of the Iran–Lebanon land bridge |
| China's Iran–Saudi mediation | China, Iran, Saudi Arabia | The U.S. | First time China led regional diplomacy |
| Abraham Accords (2020) | Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco | Palestine, Iran | Arab states prioritize self-interest over the "Palestinian cause" |
| The Gaza war | - | Palestine, Israel's credibility, regional stability | Could mark the opening of a new chapter |
| Iran's 84% uranium | (If it builds a bomb): Iran | Israel, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. | A regional nuclear race may be imminent |
For the first time in 100 years, no single great power dominates the Middle East. The U.S. is withdrawing, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, Britain and France no longer have power, Iran is weakened, Israel is entangled in Gaza, Saudi Arabia is hedging across multiple powers, Turkey is charting its own path, and China is being cautious. This is a configuration unseen since the Ottoman era. It could be the region's first real chance at self-determination - or the recipe for ten years of unstructured chaos.
Three Final Points
One. The Middle East isn't chaotic because of culture or religion. The Middle East is the product of diplomatic decisions made in 1916: artificial borders, contradictory promises, and resources placed in the hands of states that never existed before. Instability isn't its nature - it's its design.
Two. Every conflict in the region carries three coexisting layers: religion, geopolitics, ethnicity. Regimes and great powers always use one layer to mask another - calling it Sunni–Shia when it's really about oil, calling it "freedom and democracy" when it's really about geopolitics. Serious analysis requires looking at all three layers at once, not collapsing into just one.
Three. Middle Eastern civilians always pay the price, and their voices are always suppressed. There is no quick fix. There is only a solution once the people of the Middle East gain the right to self-determination - something that hasn't happened since the Ottoman collapse a century ago. Until then, every "peace" is just the quiet interval between two wars.
03 Discussion
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