From 2011 to 2026, HDB resale prices rose ~38%, condo prices rose ~32%, median household income rose ~68% - in nominal terms, this island nation is one of the housing markets that has become relatively more affordable against income compared with 15 years ago. But behind that smooth average line sit more than ten rounds of cooling measures, a rental shock of +30% in just 12 months in 2022, and a wave of capital fleeing Hong Kong and China that turned Singapore into "Asia's Switzerland" during the very period Evergrande collapsed.
Scope: This article focuses on Singapore's residential market. Key data series: the HDB resale price index (HDB RPI), the private home price index URA PPI, the HDB rental index and the URA Private Rental Index, and median household income from Singstat.
On 2025-2026 figures: Some data points for late 2025 and early 2026 are estimates based on the most recent quarterly reports from HDB, URA, MAS, and Singstat. Price indices are rebased to Q1 2009 = 100 (URA PPI) and 2009 = 100 (HDB RPI) - this is the official standard.
The Headline Numbers - 15 Years At A Glance
Singapore is one of the few countries with 15 years of publicly available quarterly housing price data, published by two government agencies: HDB (Housing & Development Board) for the 78% of the population living in public housing, and URA (Urban Redevelopment Authority) for the private market (condos, landed property). That makes it a rare regional data set that isn't "massaged" - because the same agency that publishes the prices is also the one that sets taxes and issues permits.
From 2011 to 2026, this market passed through three cycles: the post-2009-crisis boom (through 2013), five straight years of cooling from cooling measures (2014-2018), then a fierce COVID-era rebound (2020-2024) before decelerating. Notably, 2022 saw record rent growth - driven not by Singaporeans, but by outsiders.
Four Curves, One Story
| Year | Median income (S$/mo) | HDB RPI | URA PPI | HDB Rental | Private Rental | YoY HDB | YoY Condo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | ~7,040 | 145.9 | 206.2 | - | 136.8 | +10.7% | +5.9% |
| 2013 | ~7,870 | 149.4 ↑peak | 214.4 ↑peak | ~125 | 134.6 | +1.4% | +1.1% |
| 2018 | ~9,290 | 131.0 ↓trough | 204.2 | ~115 | 118.6 | +0.1% | +7.9% |
| 2020 | 9,189 (covid) | 138.1 | 211.1 | ~120 | 118.5 | +5.0% | +2.2% |
| 2021 | ~9,520 | 155.7 | 225.8 | ~135 | 130.3 | +12.7% | +10.6% |
| 2022 | 10,099 | 171.9 | 242.0 | ~165 | 168.9 | +10.4% | +8.6% |
| 2023 | 10,869 | 180.2 | 252.2 | ~178 | 183.6 | +4.9% | +6.8% |
| 2024 | 11,297 | 197.6 | 262.0 | ~180 | 180.1 | +9.7% | +3.9% |
| 2025E | ~11,500 | ~199 | ~270 | ~178 | ~180 | +0.7% | +3.0% |
| 2026F | ~11,800 | ~201 | ~273 | ~178 | ~181 | +1.0% | +1.1% |
Source: Singstat (median monthly household income from work, including employer CPF) · HDB Resale Price Index (base Q1 2009 = 100) · URA Private Residential Property Price Index (base Q1 2009 = 100) · URA Rental Index (base Q1 2009 = 100) · SRX HDB Rental Index. 2025-2026 figures are estimates from the most recent quarterly reports.
Over the full 15 years, income grew faster than home prices in Singapore - an extremely rare pattern among major Asian cities. But "median income" hides a more layered story: did it rise thanks to the bottom group or the top group? The section below breaks down the distribution in detail.
Citizen Income - A Deeper Look
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A fair question: when Singapore's median household income rose from ~S$7,040 (2011) to ~S$11,297 (2024), was that because the bottom 50% genuinely rose, or just the top 10% dragging the average up? Since Singapore has continuously imported high-end EP holders and family offices over the same period, the "average is being skewed upward" hypothesis is plausible.
Singstat's Key Household Income Trends 2024 and 2025 data gives a counterintuitive answer - and a very clear one:
Why did the bottom decile grow faster than the top decile?
Three deliberately designed policies compress the gap on purpose, not by accident:
- Progressive Wage Model (PWM). A mandatory wage floor across 9 low-wage sectors: cleaning, security, food services, retail, landscaping, lift maintenance, property management, driving, and elderly care. Each sector has a roadmap raising the wage floor 6-8%/year. This is why the bottom decile grew so fast.
- Workfare Income Supplement (WIS). Cash + CPF top-ups for low-wage workers. In 2024 the WIS cap rose to S$4,900/year for those aged 60 and above. This is a direct transfer that boosts after-tax income at the bottom.
- Foreign Worker Levy & Quota. Levies on Work Permits (construction, manufacturing, services) rise steadily, paired with maximum-ratio quotas. Effect: local low-wage labor becomes scarcer, forcing employers to pay more to retain it.
On the top-decile side, why the real decline? Two causes:
- Tech/finance compensation cycle. 2019-2020 was the peak of regional Asian tech pay, followed by 2023-2024 tech layoffs and a lower compensation reset in 2025.
- Natural EP attrition. EP holders whose passes expire return home or move elsewhere - replaced by newcomers with lower starting salaries (since COMPASS requires a higher minimum salary, but not a peak salary).
If the bottom decile is growing faster than the top decile, demand for affordable housing is rising faster than demand for luxury housing. This is precisely why HDB resale rose +43% over 4 years (2020-2024) while condo URA PPI rose only +24% over the same period - not because Singaporeans rushed to buy HDB flats, but because they had more money to buy better HDB flats (Bukit Merah, Toa Payoh instead of Jurong, Yishun). That pushed up-tier HDB prices higher still - creating the "million-dollar HDB" phenomenon: 1,035 units in 2024.
Conversely, if the top decile's real income is falling 0.7%/year, demand for luxury CCR condos is weaker than people assume. This is partly why CCR condo prices went sideways in 2024-2025 despite continued family-office inflows.
Methodological note: Singstat's figures cover only resident households (citizens + PRs) and do NOT include the non-resident group (EP holders, S Pass holders, dependents). So "Singapore's bottom decile" means the bottom 10% of citizens/PRs, not the bottom 10% of the total low-wage workforce (which includes Work Permit holders). Foreign workers in dormitories are not part of this distribution.
Three Cycles - 2011 to 2026
The 15-year story can be split into three distinct phases, each stamped by a policy round or an external shock. Splitting it into three phases isn't just for classification - it shows that no price rally in Singapore has ever occurred without an accompanying macro cause.
Phase 1: 2011-2013 - Post-US-QE Liquidity + Inflation Fears
From the 2009 trough, Singapore home prices recovered rapidly. By 2013, the HDB RPI hit a peak of 149.4 (vs. 2009 = 100) and URA PPI reached 214.4. The cause: three rounds of Fed QE pumping global liquidity, a weak USD, and hot money flowing into Asian assets. Singapore - with a stable SGD and solid rule of law - was one of the first stops.
MAS responded with eight consecutive rounds of cooling measures from 2009 to 2013. The high point was the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) in June 2013: a maximum debt-to-income ratio of 60%, applied to all loans (not just home loans). Analysts have rated this the "most effective measure in Southeast Asia's cooling-measure history" - it cuts straight into borrowing leverage capacity rather than just raising fees.
Phase 2: 2014-2018 - Five Cooling Years
After the TDSR, the HDB resale market slid for five straight years. From the peak of 149.4 at end-2013, the RPI fell to a trough of 131.0 at end-2018 - a -12.4% drop from the peak. Condos also fell roughly -12% before rebounding from 2017. Notably, not a single quarter saw HDB prices rise more than 1% YoY throughout 2014-2019. This is proof that Singapore can control home prices if it genuinely wants to.
In July 2018, MAS rolled out a surprise round of cooling measures: ABSD (Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty) rose for citizens buying a second property, and - notably - foreigner ABSD rose from 15% to 20%. This signaled that MAS did not want a repeat of the 2010-2013 hot rally.
Phase 3: 2020-2026 - The Rebound and the Hong Kong Shock
COVID reversed everything. In Q2 2020, HDB prices began rebounding for two reasons: (1) BTO (Build-To-Order - the affordable public-housing channel) was delayed 6-12 months due to construction-site restrictions, forcing demand toward HDB resale; (2) a wave of condo dwellers upgraded to landed property, pulling demand up the entire market.
From Q4 2020 to Q4 2024, the HDB RPI rose from 138.1 to 197.6 - that's +43% in just 4 years. This is the longest and strongest rally in HDB history since the RPI's data became public (1990). Over the same period, condos rose from 211 to 262 - slower, but steady.
The 2022 Shock - When Hong Kong Fled
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2022 was the year Singapore ran out of rooms to rent. This isn't hyperbole - condo vacancy in Q3 2022 fell to 5.5%, the lowest in nearly a decade. HDB rental vacancy was even close to zero in central districts. Why?
Four causes stacked on top of each other at the same time:
Hong Kong protests + National Security Law (NSL). After protests dragged through 2019, Beijing imposed the NSL in June 2020. Immediately, Hong Kong's finance professionals, lawyers, and journalists began seeking a "Plan B". Singapore was the top choice thanks to its common-law system, English language, and a top income-tax rate of 24%. But this flow was slow - by 2021 it wasn't yet clearly visible in property data.
Common Prosperity in China. Xi Jinping announced the "common prosperity" campaign, cracking down hands-on on tech (Didi, Alibaba), private education (wiping out the billion-dollar tutoring industry), and especially real estate via the "Three Red Lines" in August 2020. Wealthy Chinese began moving assets abroad.
Evergrande default. When China's largest developer defaulted on its offshore USD bonds, confidence in Chinese real estate - which made up 70% of household assets - collapsed. Country Garden, Sunac, and Kaisa followed in turn. By mid-2022, more than 20 million apartment units sat unfinished. Wealthy Chinese shifted from diversification to outright capital flight.
Singapore reopened its borders early. While China stuck with zero-COVID through late 2022 and Hong Kong maintained strict quarantine, Singapore reopened from April 2022. This was the only open door for Chinese and Hong Kong nationals looking to leave. Employment Pass visa numbers, and especially the Global Investor Programme, surged to record highs.
At the same time, Singapore's BTO program was still delayed post-COVID, and newly completed condos landed in 2024-2025 rather than 2022 - supply couldn't offset the sudden spike in demand in the same year.
Singstat data on permanent residents and non-residents confirms this: Singapore's non-citizen population fell by 90,000 in 2021 (due to COVID repatriation), then surged by 96,000 in 2022 - an almost complete reversal within 12 months. Among them, new family-office registrations (via MAS's Section 13O/13U schemes) rose from ~400 at end-2020 to 1,650 at end-2023 and then ~2,000 at end-2024 - mostly capital from Hong Kong and mainland China. Why the wealthy choose Singapore over Dubai, Switzerland, or Hong Kong - and the GIC + Temasek + MAS "machine" behind that reason - is dissected in Singapore: The Wealth Machine Of A Resource-Less Nation →.
Each family office on average hires staff, rents office space, and rents at least 2-3 apartments for the family and directors. This created a "high-quality rental demand" that the market couldn't supply fast enough. CCR (Core Central Region) condo rents - in Orchard, River Valley, Bukit Timah - rose 40-50% in just 18 months. A 2-bedroom unit in Robertson Quay that rented for S$5,500/month in 2020 jumped to S$9,000-10,000/month by end-2022.
Cooling Measures - Eight Key Milestones Over 15 Years
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Singapore is the most frequent and earliest adopter of cooling measures in Southeast Asia - the 2009-2013 period alone saw eight consecutive rounds, followed by further rounds in 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Unlike China (Three Red Lines striking at supply) or Vietnam (cooling aimed mainly at credit), Singapore uses a combination of transaction taxes (ABSD, SSD), borrowing limits (LTV, TDSR), and BTO supply management. The eight milestones below had the clearest price impact:
After the 60% foreigner ABSD in April 2023, foreign condo sales volume fell to a trough. In June 2023, only 34 condo units sold to foreigners (versus 348 units in the same month of 2022). The foreigner share of Q4 2023 condo transactions was 2.6%, the lowest in URA's data. Effect: the 2022 hot streak was genuinely cut off from the demand side.
But rental demand wasn't affected - because ABSD is a tax on purchases, not rentals. The April 2023 policy shifted a portion of HK/China capital from "buy a condo to rent out" to "rent a condo to live in". This helps explain why 2023 rents still rose 8.7% even as sale prices decelerated.
New Supply 2023-2027 - The Completion Peak Has Passed
To forecast rents, the most important variable isn't ABSD or interest rates - it's the number of units actually handed over with keys in the next 2-3 years. A condo sold in 2021 only enters the rental supply once it's completed in 2024. A BTO flat launched for sale in 2022 only frees its buyer from the rental market once keys are issued in 2026.
Data on both sides - HDB BTO and URA private - tell the same story: 2023-2025 is the supply peak. After that, supply will fall back to the historical average.
HDB BTO - A Record Key Handover in 2024-2025
After the 2020-2021 delays from construction restrictions, HDB accelerated BTO launches: 23,184 units launched in 2022, 22,780 units in 2023, ~21,000 units/year in 2024-2025. These units are completed in turn 3-4 years later:
| Year | HDB BTO launches | HDB completions (key handover) | Effect on HDB rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~16,800 | ~14,000 | BTO delayed 6-12 months → pushes demand toward resale & rental |
| 2021 | ~17,100 | ~13,000 | Delays continue - peak HDB rental pressure |
| 2022 | 23,184 | ~17,200 | Supply starts catching up, but HK/China rental demand absorbs it all |
| 2023 | 22,780 | ~19,600 | Strong recovery, easing resale pressure |
| 2024 | ~21,000 | ~22,000 ↑record | Frees ~22K households from the HDB rental market |
| 2025E | ~20,000 | ~21,000 | Supply peak continues - HDB rent flat or falling |
| 2026F | ~19,000 | ~17,000 | Supply gradually falls, but cumulative surplus remains |
| 2027F | ~18,000 | ~15,000 | Back to normal levels |
Source: HDB Annual Reports 2020-2024 · MND parliamentary replies · BTO sales launch announcements, Q1/Q4 each year.
Private Residential - Peak 2023, Mini-Bump 2027
URA's Q4 2024 publication "Pipeline of Private Residential Units (excluding ECs)" provides expected annual completion figures. The 2020-2027 period shows a clear peak in 2023, a deep dip in 2025, then a slight rise again in 2027:
| Year | Private completions (URA) | EC completions | Total (HDB + Private + EC) | vs. new households (~28K/year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8,594 | ~1,800 | ~24,400 | Slight shortfall |
| 2021 | 6,388 | ~1,500 | ~20,900 | Clear shortfall |
| 2022 | 9,931 | ~3,200 | ~30,300 | Slightly oversupplied |
| 2023 | 19,968 ↑peak | ~3,500 | ~43,100 ↑record | Strongly oversupplied - rents start falling |
| 2024 | 8,460 | ~5,400 | ~35,900 | Still oversupplied |
| 2025E | 5,846 | ~3,800 | ~30,600 | Balanced |
| 2026F | 6,898 | ~2,200 | ~26,100 | Balanced, slight shortfall |
| 2027F | ~10,000 | ~2,500 | ~27,500 | Balanced |
Source: URA Quarterly Pipeline Reports (Q4/2024 · Q1/2025) · EC = Executive Condominium · 2025-2027 figures are projections from the existing under-construction pipeline. New households ~28,000/year per Singstat Population Trends 2024.
From 2023 to 2027, Singapore will hand over a total of ~163,000 new homes (HDB + condo + EC) - the highest level since 2014-2017. Of these, ~94,000 are HDB BTO units handed to new buyers, and ~52,000 are private condos, most of which go to buy-to-let investors. That means rental-specific supply alone increases by ~50K units over 5 years - enough to feed through into rents by -5% to -10%.
Foreign Labor - The Inflow Has Slowed
On the demand side, foreign labor is the key variable. Roughly 1.85 million foreigners were working in Singapore (end-2024), making up 40% of the workforce. They are the main tenants in the CCR/RCR condo market and HDB flats near the city center. If this group stops growing, rental demand stalls.
| Year-end | Total FW (excl. MDW) | YoY | Net change | EP holders | S Pass | Work Permit (excl. MDW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 984,100 | - | - | 177,100 | 174,000 | 600,800 |
| 2021 | 954,100 | −3.0% | −30,000 | 161,700 | 161,800 | 631,000 |
| 2022 | 1,155,700 | +21.1% | +201,600 | 187,300 | 177,900 | 790,500 |
| 2023 | 1,239,200 | +7.2% | +83,500 | 205,400 | 178,500 | 827,000 |
| 2024 | 1,274,900 | +2.9% | +35,700 | 202,100 | 178,200 | 870,100 |
| 2025 | 1,318,800 | +3.4% | +43,900 | 203,300 | 178,900 | 905,800 |
Source: MOM Foreign Workforce Numbers (Last updated 20/3/2026, Dec snapshot). MDW = Migrant Domestic Workers (mostly living with employers, so they don't constitute condo/HDB rental demand). Total non-resident population (including students and dependents) reached 1.91M in June 2025 (+2.7% YoY), per Singstat Population in Brief 2025.
Slowed - But Slowed To What Level?
On the aggregate curve, inflows into Singapore passed through 4 distinct phases:
- Phase 1 (2020-2021): Contraction. COVID + closed borders. A net loss of ~30K workforce in total. EP fell from 193K to 162K.
- Phase 2 (2022): The surge. Net +201,600 in 12 months - almost equal to the previous five years combined. This is precisely why rents jumped +29.7%.
- Phase 3 (2023-2024): Normalization. Net +83K, then +36K. The pace fell 60% each year. EP peaked at 205K at end-2023, easing back to 202K at end-2024.
- Phase 4 (2025): Stabilizing at a "new normal". Net +43,900 workforce - roughly matching 2024, not falling further. EP edged up slightly to 203,300. WP excl. MDW continued rising steadily by +35K (driven by the Changi T5 infrastructure project and BTO ramp-up).
Why Did The Pace Slow - And Why Didn't 2025 Keep Falling?
Three downward forces and one upward force are balancing each other:
- Downward - the COMPASS framework (9/2023). New EP requirements: the minimum salary rose from S$5,000 to S$5,600 (S$6,200 for finance). This is why EP fell back from 205K (2023) to 202K (2024) before stabilizing at 203K (2025).
- Downward - family-office tightening in 2024-2025. The minimum AUM for Section 13O tax incentives rose from S$10M to S$20M. New applications fell.
- Downward - tech/finance layoffs. In 2023-2024, tech firms and some banks cut Singapore headcount by 5-10%.
- Upward - the construction Work Permit boom. Singstat recorded a sharp rise in construction Work Permit Holders in 2024-2025 to serve Changi Terminal 5, BTO ramp-up, and Tuas Mega Port. WP excl. MDW rose +43K in 2024 and +36K in 2025 - offsetting the flat EP/S Pass numbers.
Total FW excl. MDW grew steadily by +3.4% in 2025 - but the composition has changed. Most of it is construction Work Permit holders (who don't rent condos/HDB, they live in dormitories). EP - the higher-earning group that actually rents CCR/RCR condos - rose by only 1,200 people (203,300 vs. 202,100) for the whole year. That means demand for premium condo rentals is flat even as total workforce keeps growing. This is the clearest signal for the 2026 rental forecast: HDB rent stable, CCR condo rent continuing to drift slightly lower.
Condo Vacancy Rate - The 2023 Supply Shock Has Been Absorbed
Workforce data shows demand has stalled. HDB BTO + condo TOP data shows supply has peaked. The remaining question: where do the two sides actually meet? The best composite indicator is the private condo vacancy rate - completed units with no occupant, divided by total stock. URA has published this quarterly since 1990. It's the only genuinely "self-reporting market" indicator, because it nets out actual new supply plus real absorbed demand, rather than being an estimate.
The vacancy line is the best composite indicator because it self-reports the supply-demand balance without needing separate estimates for each side. Three distinct phases:
- 2021-2022 - tightening. Vacancy fell from 7.0% (Q4/2020) to 5.5% (Q4/2022) - the lowest in nearly a decade. HK/China demand plus a +201K workforce surge absorbed all available stock. This is the condition that produced +29.7% condo rent growth in 2022.
- 2023 - bounce-back. The TOP wave of 19,968 private units (see the supply section above), combined with saturated HK/China demand, pushed vacancy up to 8.4% Q3/2023 - a 5-year high. This was an early warning of the 2024 rental cooldown (down to just +6.5% YoY).
- 2024-2025 - absorption. The TOP pipeline gradually shrank (only ~9,300 units in 2025 vs. the 2023 peak of 19,968), while workforce demand held at +35-44K/year. Vacancy fell to 6.0% by Q4/2025. Q1/2026 edged up slightly to 6.2% but remains within the balanced band - not an oversupply warning.
Vacancy does not support the −5%/year bear case. For a deep drop, vacancy would need to stay above 8% for 2-3 consecutive quarters - it's currently only 6.2%, and the 2026-2027 TOP pipeline is thinner. Vacancy also doesn't support the +3-4% bull case - for a re-tightening, vacancy would need to fall below 5% like Q4/2022. Current signals best fit the base case: condo rent flat to very slightly down. The bear case's probability could drop below 25% if Q2/2026 vacancy doesn't exceed 6.5%; conversely, if Q2-Q3/2026 stays above 7.5% consecutively, the bear-case model probability rises +5pp.
Rent Forecast 2026-2028 - Three Scenarios
Placing supply and demand side by side, a cooling rent scenario is the most likely outcome. Cumulative new condo supply of ~52K units over 2023-2027 flows into the rental pool, while foreign-labor demand has slowed from +21.1% (2022) to a steady ~+3%/year (2024-2025) - with the composition shifting toward construction Work Permits (who don't rent condos), and EP flat around 203K. The 60% ABSD blocks the next wave of HK/China capital. All three factors point the same direction.
The only question: the pace of cooling. There are three scenarios based on 2024-2025 data:
Sale Price Forecast - Dependent, But Milder
Sale prices track rents but lag by 6-12 months, since buyers look at yield. In the base case:
- HDB resale: +1 to +2%/year, 2026-2028. Downward pressure from record BTO completions + LTV at 75%. Upward support from median income growth of +3-4%/year.
- Condo (URA PPI): +0 to +1%/year in 2026-2027, +1-2% in 2028. The 2027 supply mini-bump will be absorbed since total supply remains below the 2023 peak. Falling loan rates toward ~3% help affordability - this "sliding" rate environment (T-Bills from 4.36% down to 1.37%) is also pushing savers out of fixed deposits into riskier products; see Singapore's Savings & Investment Map, Q1 2026 → to understand where that capital is heading.
- Million-dollar HDB: the pace slows after 2025 as central-area BTO Plus/Prime units compete directly. In 2026, the number of HDB flats selling above S$1M is expected to fall to ~700-800 (from ~1,035 in 2024).
A Reading Guide - Early Signals For Rent
Since the 2022 rental shock built up in just 6-9 months, tenants and landlords need indicators that lead the published rent figures. The four indicators below all have public data and update faster than the URA Rental Index (which lags by one quarter):
- Foreign Workforce Numbers (MOM, semi-annual). Published in March and September. If YoY turns negative for 2 consecutive releases → CCR/RCR condo rental demand will fall −5% within 6-12 months. Currently +3.4% (Dec 2025) - no longer slowing, the pace has stabilized, and the "negative" warning hasn't triggered.
- EP holders (MOM). Updated every 6 months. Latest data: peak 205,400 (2023) → 202,100 (2024) → 203,300 (2025). If it falls below 200,000 → premium (CCR) condo rental demand falls directly.
- Condo rental vacancy rate (URA quarterly reports). Q1/2026 stands at 6.2% (see the vacancy chart above). If Q2-Q3/2026 jumps above 8% → a clear oversupply → rent keeps falling. It's currently in the "balanced" band after fully absorbing the 2023 supply shock (peak 8.4% Q3/2023 → trough 6.0% Q4/2025).
- SRX HDB Rental Volume. Monthly HDB rental transaction count. If it falls below 7,500 transactions/month (versus ~9,000 in 2022-2023) → HDB rental demand is weak → HDB rent will fall within 3-6 months.
For buy-to-let investors, two secondary indicators:
- Family office Section 13O/13U applications. Peaked at ~600 new applications/year in 2022-2023, falling to ~300 in 2024 after MAS tightened the minimum AUM. If it falls below 200 in 2026 → luxury CCR rental demand drops sharply.
- Foreigner ABSD revenue. 2022: ~S$2.1 billion. 2024: ~S$420 million. If it falls below S$200 million in 2026 → MAS may cut foreigner ABSD to 40-50% to revive the luxury segment → short-term bullish for CCR condo sale prices.
Singapore lacks three "risk pockets" that other countries in the region have:
- No selling homes off-plan. ~80% of transactions are already-built units; buyer funds are held in escrow until handover - if a developer collapses, buyers don't lose their money.
- No "shadow credit" for developers. Developers can only borrow from MAS-licensed banks - there's no unsupervised trust/wealth-management channel like in China.
- The government doesn't "live off land sales". Singapore is a city-state with a diversified central budget (taxes, GST, GIC/Temasek) - it has no incentive to push up land prices the way Chinese local governments do.
Add to that HDB, which plans, builds, sells, and lends all at once - Singapore can suppress prices when it wants to and push supply when it needs to. No other country in the region can replicate this model.
Conclusion - The Supply-Demand Reversal Is Nearly Complete
2021-2022 was a period of tight supply and demand turned hot: BTO supply was delayed, new condo launches were at low levels, while foreign labor demand surged +21% in just 12 months due to the HK/China wave. Result: condo rent +29.7% (full year), HDB rent +22% (full year; December peak +27%) - a record in the data.
2025-2026 is a complete reversal: HDB BTO supply at a record peak (~22K units/year, 2024-2025), cumulative condo supply of ~52K units over 2023-2027. On the demand side, foreign labor fell from +21.1% (2022) to a steady ~+3%/year (2024-2025) - and more importantly, EP - the group that actually rents condos - has been flat around 203K since late 2023. Both sides are moving in opposite directions.
That's why the base case forecasts a cooldown: condo rent −2% in 2026, flat in 2027, +1% in 2028. HDB rent flat to slightly down. Since sale prices lag rent by 6-12 months, 2026 still carries slight upward momentum of +1-2%/year, before falling in line with income growth.
Two truths coexist to this day: Singapore remains a city where citizen income grew faster than home prices over 15 years - the result of HDB, cooling measures, and a high-skill labor market. But it was outsiders as tenants who bore the brunt of two full years of shock in 2022-2023. Both sides will eventually settle into a new equilibrium - not because of a crisis, but because supply and demand rarely fight each other for longer than three years. And those three years are almost up.
The two remaining scenarios - heating back up from a second HK/China shock (15%), or a deep chill from a US + China recession (25%) - both depend on factors outside this island nation, not within it. Watching Foreign Workforce YoY every quarter is the cheapest way to know which scenario is winning.
References
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- HDB Press Releases - Resale Price Index (RPI) (quarterly report)
- URA Media Releases - Private Property Price Index & Rental Index (quarterly report)
- Singstat - Median Monthly Household Income from Work (Including Employer CPF)
- Singstat - Key Household Income Trends 2025 (Press Release 9/2/2026) - decile distribution, Gini, real income growth
- Singapore Population in Brief 2023, 2024 (net migration data)
- MOM Foreign Workforce Numbers (June + December snapshots each year: EP, S Pass, WP)
- MOM COMPASS Framework (9/2023) - minimum EP salary & complementarity scoring
- URA - Pipeline of Private Residential and EC Units (expected completion units 2025-2027)
- HDB Annual Reports (BTO launches, completions, key handover)
- MAS Macroeconomic Review (interest rate reports, forecasts)
- MAS - Section 13O / 13U Family Office Tax Incentives
- Business Times - Property section (SRX HDB Rental Index reports)
- Bloomberg - Singapore Rents Surge as Wealthy Flee China, Hong Kong (6/2022)
- Global Property Guide - Singapore Residential Price History
- MAS - Raising of ABSD Rates April 2023
- HDB - New BTO Classification: Standard / Plus / Prime (10/2024)
- Related posts on this blog: China - 33 Months Of Falling Home Prices · Singapore Wealth Machine · Vietnam's Real Estate Bubble
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