In 2007, Ray Dalio saw the crash coming before the rest of the world. In 2026, every one of those warning signs - the exchange rate, real estate credit, liquidity - is repeating in Vietnam.
22 · iv · 2026
Public debt ~34% of GDP, growth of 8.02% (2025), a sweeping tax reform. Look closer: 11.4% GDP tax revenue, 83.7% disbursement, long-term social insurance pressure - the submerged part the IMF/World Bank keep flagging.
22 · iv · 2026
Vietnam runs a ~$95–100 billion unofficial FX ecosystem alongside its official channels. Four channels, the impact on the VND, and six historic currency attacks.
22 · iv · 2026
Borrow yen at 0.75%, buy US assets yielding 4-5%. Trillions of dollars built on the assumption 'BOJ keeps rates at zero forever.' BOJ hikes 0.15% - Nikkei craters 12.4% in 48 hours.
22 · iv · 2026
86% of crude from one country. 87% through one strait. 20 days of reserves - a quarter of the IEA standard. July 2026 update: pump prices have reversed with the global trend, but the risk structure is unchanged.
20 · iv · 2026
Folio VIII of VIII