Goodhart, 1975: every statistical regularity collapses once it's used as a target. From Soviet nail factories to India's cobras, Microsoft's AI leaderboards, and Vietnam's 10% GDP target - the same trap, every time.
24 · iv · 2026
9/2025: two US companies collapsed within a week, UBS lost $500M. Early 2026: Blue Owl, Apollo, Carlyle, BlackRock all gate redemptions. Jamie Dimon: 'When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.'
24 · iv · 2026
AI isn't bottlenecked by compute - it's bottlenecked by memory bandwidth. HBM has pushed DRAM chip prices up 90%, and SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are the winners. Can DeepSeek's Engram break the monopoly?
23 · iv · 2026
1995: Japan's top-3% wealth threshold was $1.25M. 2023: still $1.25M. Japan didn't get poorer - it just stopped getting richer.
23 · iv · 2026
In January 1989, a Tokyo politician and Sony's CEO wrote a book. The Pentagon bootleg-translated it, and the US Congress panicked. Thirty-five years later, Beijing rereads it - to do the opposite.
23 · iv · 2026
From ChatGPT's GPT-3.5 (2022) to Claude 4.7, LLaMA 4, DeepSeek R1 - how LLMs predict tokens, the Transformer, pretraining + SFT + RLHF, Constitutional AI, KV cache, speculative decoding, MoE, and reasoning.
23 · iv · 2026
In 1916, Britain promised three different things to three different groups - none of them compatible. A century later, we are still living with the consequences.
23 · iv · 2026
From far-left to far-right - a map of voter ideology, the ruling parties of 38 OECD countries, the rightward drift, and the policies shaping the decade.
23 · iv · 2026
London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai - every major financial hub picks English Common Law. When billions are on the line, you need a legal system that's been stress-tested for 800 years.
23 · iv · 2026
Every five minutes on an American highway, there's another lawyer billboard. When lawyers, doctors, and insurers all start playing game theory, justice turns into a $529 billion industry.
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Folio VI of VIII